(Not so) Important realization

Historical persons are immortal until their date of death. They can't die before they're suppose to die!

A good primer for Singularity

This 20 minute talk from Ray Kurzweil should be enough to get anyone started on the subject of technological singularity and tranhumanism. Kurzweil is, as usual, persuasive and his vision is fascinating. Listening to him speak reminds me of Hari Seldon, from Asimov's Foundation books.

Devil's Advocate

Here's me debating with myself again:

The accelerating pace of improvement in computation, also known as Moore's Law, can not continue forever. There are fundamental limitations to how small we can make the circuits and still be able to disperse away heat.

The exponential curves that Kurzweil is so fond of are nothing more than the beginning of a logistic curve. Instead of accelerating into singularity, technological development will hit the inflection point at 2050 and slowly saturate until society and technology comes to an equilibrium.

Simply look at the development of railroads in the United States - there was an intense period of growth for railroad development, but today that has completely stopped.

And the rebuttal:

Moore's Law is a dead horse. Nobody says that the current silicon based photolithographic chips can be made faster exponentially (though it's been good to us for 20 years).

"Whenever a technology approaches some kind of a barrier, according to Kurzweil, a new technology will be invented to allow us to cross that barrier" These paradigm shifts has been happening for as long as people can remember - bronze to iron to steel, steam engine to diesel to gasoline to rocket and jet, etc. While we're not sure which technology will replace silicon, there are many plausible and hotly researched candidates: photonic, molecular, nanotubes, DNA and protein, quantum.

The saturation point has to do with economic and social carrying capacity - it boils down to the question, "When is enough enough?" This makes it obvious to me that the singularity will happen first in the United States. Americans are never satisfied with "enough". They always want more. There is very little profit in a saturated market - instead of stifling progress, the economy demands innovation.

The main obstacle remains: moral, ethical, and social pressures. Already there exists regulations against genetic research. You can be sure there will be more laws and regulations against genetic augmentation, against cybernetic augmentation, against robots, against AI, etc. People are jealous of things they don't understand or don't want to understand. These attitudes will limit progress to baby-steps (see Asimo, Roomba, etc warming the public up to the idea of friendly robots).

Freak

I have these two long arms that hang by my sides. Each one has five wriggly appendages on the end. And I have over a hundred thousand thin black strands on top of my head, and every day they get a little bit longer. There are two pits in the middle of my face with round squishy balls lodged inside, and if you stare too long at them I guarantee you'll get creeped out. I also like to sit for hours and hours in front of a glowing rectangle, like I'm in a trance. Sometimes, I put pieces of dead animals inside my mouth. That's one of my favorite things, actually. Pieces of dead animals. I also cover myself with pieces of cloth because I don't want the world to see what a freak I am.

Please don't judge me.

Wish Upon a Star

The star Betelgeuse, resting on the shoulder of the Orion constellation, is a red supergiant, and one of the largest and brightest stars in the sky. In the last decade, scientists have observed it shrinking at an increasing rate - shedding about 15% of its size. At its core, carbon and neon and oxygen are breaking apart and fusing into heavier elements. At its surface, plasma and hot gas boil and bubble and large plumes eject into space.

The sudden change may be a harbinger of the end of its life cycle - the old star will go supernova within the next one thousand years, and its core may collapse into a black hole. On Earth, this event will be brighter than the moon and be visible during the day.

I want to be there, to witness the death of a star.

I wish I may, I wish I might...